Walking this week and the weather report looks bad.

adriaanb

Posted: Sat, Sep 15, 2018, 14:55

Hi All,

I planned to start walking the GR20 this Monday and will arrive in Calvi this Sunday. I just had a look at the weather report (https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Monte-Cinto/forecasts/2706) and this really looks bad and I am not sure if I should start with a forecast this bad.

Does anyone knows if this weather forecast is accurate? And would it be responsible to start walking with this forecast in mind? I am camping and everyday thunderstorms isn't something I am looking forward to.

Thanks for the help.

Kind regards,
Adriaan



GRRR 20

Posted: Sat, Sep 15, 2018, 15:57

I think that's the worst weather forecast I've seen!



adriaanb

Posted: Sat, Sep 15, 2018, 16:28

I read somewhere that the weather isn't really predictable. So is a day-by-day estimate the way to go?



SQFP

Posted: Sat, Sep 15, 2018, 17:25

Yep, you shouldn't trust long-term (>48h) forecast. Reliability is good only a few hours in advance due to the wind regimes that surround the island, thus making extreme weather events transient and localized.
The take-home lesson is:
- get forecasts from various sources and ponder according to their precision/reliability
- analyze any local forecast in the broader context of regional, week-scale weather instability
- trust your eyes, for most weather events are easy to predict just by looking around you

Considering this simplified forecast:
https://www.lachainemeteo.com/meteo-france/station-montagne-4/previsions...
and mid-term charts:
http://forecast.uoa.gr/forecastnew.php
I'd say the coming week should be quite ok for hiking: mild temperatures, clouded skies, episodic showers and dry nights, few (if any) thunderstorms.

--

Geology in Corsica



adriaanb

Posted: Sat, Sep 15, 2018, 18:16

Thanks for the great advice! I was getting a bit worried and now I have more hope :)



Alexander

Posted: Wed, Sep 26, 2018, 11:35

Hi!
Just checked your links before my trip. Seems there will be some rainy days next week. How precise this forecast for mountain regions. As i'm going south to north my greatest concern is the Cinto range. Mid-term prognosis looks fine with small level of rainfall.